Industry projections put first week sales for both albums just north of 300,000 units, not including streaming and track equivalent albums.

One key indicator is how preorders are showing at iTunes. On Apple’s digital storefront, One Direction shows an advantage, with about 170,000 units on order versus 110,000 for Bieber. Or does that show an advantage? Bieber’s digital sales across his discography account for 15.5 percent of his 10.7 million aggregated album sales. One Direction’s digital penetration across the group’s 6.64 million album scans in the U.S. stands at 34.8 percent, more than double Bieber’s. So it stands to reason that One Direction would have more digital pre-orders, and digital data backs that up.

If it comes down to consumption (which takes into account all sales, plus track and stream-equivalent albums), label soothsayers give Bieber a slight edge, saying that he has stronger track sales at the moment. Also, Bieber has another advantage on streaming services. Both albums are expected to total between 50,000 and 80,000 equivalent units, with Bieber possibly winning that race by 10,000 units or so.